台灣受極端氣候和地殼錯動的影響，災害頻傳，台灣東部的花蓮地區更是首當其衝，存在著許多避難弱勢的族群。本研究收集花蓮縣曾經遭受災害侵襲的3個部落308份問卷，以及11所國中小學204份問卷的受災經驗調查，利用空間自相關的空間分析和選擇試驗法的特徵偏好，量化部落居民存在的空間位置和認知行為的空間關係，並從校園防災組織的韌性，探討災害管理的偏好，建構永續的防災管理模式。
結果顯示，在部落居民的趨避行為和防災準備、社區互動等構面呈現正向變動關係，與風險認知卻無顯著關係。由於預期環境可能帶來的風險，是組織發展適應性與轉型能力的重要元素，因此，透過校園防災組織對災害管理的偏好，教職員願付工作的行為，參與社區組織、學習環境知識、培訓防災師資等，進而得以正向的解決原本已存在於社區的難題，展現出社區在災害來臨時應有的韌性，並以適應性為架構，建立災害管理的評估系統，提供災害管理新的視野，拓展防災新的思維。

Taiwan is located in the southeastern corner of Eurasia, sits in the middle of the Western Pacific festoon of islands, due to its geographical location, it affected easily by extreme weather, the movement of the continental plates and tropical cyclone disturbances, natural disasters often occur. This is especially true to Eastern Taiwan, Hualien county, which faces the Pacific Ocean, it bears the brunt of the disasters and there are many vulnerable ethnic groups for evacuation in the county.
This study collected 308 questionnaires from 3 tribes in Hualien County, and 204 questionnaires on disaster experience surveys in 11 elementary and junior high schools. Then, using the method of spatial autocorrelation for spatial analysis and the choice experiment model to describe the feature preference heterogeneity across attributes; quantify the spatial relationship between the spatial locations and the perceived behavior of tribal residents. Furthermore, explore the preferences of disaster management from the resilience of campus disaster prevention organizations, and construct a sustainable disaster prevention management model in the end.
The results of the research show that there is a positive relationship between tribal residents’ averting behavior, disaster preparedness, and community interaction; they are more inclined to follow evacuation advisories and orders. But there is no significant relationship with risk perception; that is residents with higher risk awareness are reluctant to evacuate from their communities. Since the risks that the anticipated environment may bring are important elements to the organization’s development of adaptability and transformation capabilities, therefore, through campus disaster prevention organizations’ preference for disaster management, which was faculty members’ willingness to work on participation in community organizations, environmental knowledge gaining, and train to be disaster relief volunteer, etc., would be able to solve the problems that already existed in the community, showing the resilience that the community should have when disasters come, and using adaptability as the framework to establish a disaster management evaluation system to provide a new perspective on disaster management and expand innovative thinking on disaster prevention.

1. 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究樣區 6
1.3.1 花蓮縣境災害潛勢區之聚落 7
1.3.2 花蓮縣境高危險潛勢區之國中小學 8
1.4 研究架構與設計 10
2. 文獻回顧 13
2.1 時間地理學 13
2.1.1 時空菱柱 16
2.1.2 時空軌跡 17
2.1.3 時空背景下原住民災害應變的議題 19
2.2 空間上的趨避因子 23
2.2.1 個體避難行為與環境認知 23
2.2.2 避難疏散行為與決策因子 25
2.2.3 空間自相關 27
2.3 韌性的防災組織 29
2.3.1 防災組織的災害識覺（Awareness） 30
2.3.2 防災組織的適應性管理（Adaptation management） 32
2.3.3 防災組織的轉型意識（Transformation） 34
2.3.4 社會資本（Community capital） 36
3. 研究方法 39
3.1 地理空間分析 39
3.2 迴歸分析與單因子變異數分析 40
3.3 選擇試驗法（The Choice Experiment Model） 43
3.4 災害管理的屬性設計 48
3.4.1 感知環境的變化 49
3.4.2 防災組織的學習與規劃 50
3.4.3 掌握改變與調適的能力 50
3.4.4 面對轉型的意識 51
3.4.5 願付勞動時數 52
3.5 災害管理的選擇實驗法設計 52
3.6 災害管理偏好的假設方案 55
4. 研究結果 57
4.1 部落空間的分布型態 57
4.1.1 最近鄰距離與平均距離的比率 59
4.1.2 風險認知和趨避行為的空間自相關性 61
4.2 部落居民趨避行為的影響因素探討 64
4.3 選擇試驗法的分析結果 67
4.3.1 選擇偏好的敘述性統計分析結果 67
4.3.2 組織韌性和災害管理偏好與偏好的異質性 70
5. 討論 77
6. 結論與建議 93
6.1 結論 94
6.1.1 聚集分布集中撤離的方法 94
6.1.2 利用社會優勢的撤離策略 94
6.1.3 組織韌性的發展策略在於組織成員的願付價值 95
6.1.4 災害管理方案的福利效果轉化成災害管理的能力 96
6.1.5 防災教育和防救演練是災害管理傳承的基礎 96
6.2 建議 98
6.2.1 部落疏散撤離的災害管理策略 98
6.2.2 提升防災組織的韌性策略 99
7. 引用文獻 101

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